Does Climate Matter? Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Future Ethiopian Hydropower

This research aims at quantifying the effect and importance of considering future climate change on large-scale infrastructure in a developing country context. Plans are underway for major hydropower development in Ethiopia, a water resources-rich nation, yet consideration of climate change on design, operation, and eventual benefits of the system remains uncharted. If current strategies are reliant on stationary climate, what future climatic conditions could warrant measurable design changes or even project abandonment? How much do long-term benefits change, and is this level significant, especially considering economic variability, policy, and other competing demands? A vacuum currently exists for decisionmakers; there is clear recognition that climate change information ought to be considered but little experience in incorporating the seemingly complex science into design and operational decisions. This research aims to establish and demonstrate an approach for integrating climate change information into project evaluation, ultimately creating a serviceable format from which scientists outside of the climate specialty may address climate risk management decisions. To model the system, potential future precipitation and temperature trends are utilized to drive a coupled hydrology–Ethiopian hydropower optimization model, producing project benefit-cost ratios over 50 years. These results are subsequently evaluated through benefit-cost ratio surface illustrations for varying economic, policy, and project scope conditions. Preliminary results suggest nonstationary climate influences may warrant economic attention in Block is an associate research scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964. Brown is an assistant professor of civil and environmental engineering, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003. Email: [email protected]; [email protected]. comparison with traditionally dominant factors. Additionally, drier than historically normal conditions appear to have a greater detrimental effect on overall benefit-cost ratios than positive effects expected under wetter than normal conditions, a constructive conclusion for early project planning and design.